Japan's territorial dispute with China

Japan detained a Chinese fishing boat captain, after he allegedly rammed two Japanese Border Control vessels.

Japan released him last Friday, September 24 2010. His release has taken the heat down somewhat but has not resolved the issue. China has demanded an apology and compensation.

Japan has refused to apologize. (NZZ 25.9.2010 «Japan lehnt Entschuldigung ab», Financial Times: «Japan refuses to apologise to Japan over Fishing Boat arrest»).

Where are these Islands?

In the East China Sea, nearer to China than Japan (see Map).

What is the dispute about? Fish, oil or pride?

Fish: although the meaning of «Diaoyu» in Mandarin is «Fishing» Islands, it surely can not be about Fish!

Oil: There have been earlier suggestions that there maybe oil and gas deposits near these lslands

«The barren uninhabited islands have been controlled by Tokyo but claimed as sovereign territory by by China and Taiwan since the early 1970s soon after suspected rich oil and gas deposits were discovered nearby» (Financial Times 22.9.2010 «Wen turns up heat in row in East China Sea»)

Pride: Pride or «face» can not be the issue but will certainly be an important factor in any diplomatic solution.

«The China Daily» (state owned) gives a good overview of what must be the official view on this issue (see annexe: «Diayou dispute sowed by U.S.»).

Who is involved in the dispute?

Apart from Japan and China, several ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam, as well as Taiwan have full or partial territorial claims to these Islands.

How serious is it?

Serious enough for Japan`s Premier Naoto Kan to raise it with President Obama and then for Obama to discuss it also with ASEAN Leaders last Friday, September 24 2010.

The involvement of the U.S. on Japan's and ASEAN's side, standing to earlier commitments, does not make things any easier.

My source from the region sees this dispute as »Shadow Boxing«, and he does not expect it to escalate further i.e. no gunshot.

Where do we go from here?

China, in their increasingly assertive stance on territorial claims, will not back down.

An official apology by Japan would be tantamount to an admission by Japan that China`s Claims to these Islands are justified.

Since »face« is involved, it will take a delicately crafted »Confucian« Solution, which permits both sides to emerge with their heads high.

Quite a Challenge for Diplomacy!

«China`s Trump Card»

China`s has played a powerful trump card in the territorial dispute with Japan. Its stranglehold on Rare Earths. It controls over 95% of the supply (and 35% of the reserves) of these strategic materials,

They are vital for TV screens, computer hard disks, fiber optic cables, digital cameras, medical imaging devices and Hybrid Cars e.g. Toyota`s Prius. And they can not be replaced that easily or quickly with alternatives.

Although any export ban has been lifted, delays in delivery have still been encountered by Japan.

The point has been made! A chess move in the «Sun Tzu» tradition.

Peter Graham Lancashire (Quelle: news.ch)

http://www.st.gallen.ch/news/detail.asp?Id=458632
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